Dátum: 02.04.2008
INEKO (Institute for Economic and Social Reforms) and KEA (The Slovak Association of Economic Analysts) conduct surveys among local experts on assessing the probability of Slovakia to adopt the euro on January 1st 2009. The surveys reflect key government measures (such as the approval of the state budget, etc.) and how they change the probability of adopting euro in a given time frame. The goal of this project is to increase public awareness and explain the key steps necessary to meet the Maastricht criteria for adopting euro.
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
March 2008 | 19 | 17 : 2 | 82% | 2.2% of GDP | 2.3% | 3.2% |
February 2008 | 18 | 16 : 2 | 80% | 2.4% of GDP | 2.3% | 3.0% |
January 2008 | 18 | 16 : 2 | 78% | 2.5% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
December 2007 | 23 | 19 : 4 | 78% | 2.5% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
November 2007 | 21 | 18 : 3 | 75% | 2.6% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.8% |
October 2007 | 19 | 17 : 2 | 71% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
September 2007 | 16 | 13 : 3 | 70% | 2.9% of GDP | 1.8% | 2.6% |
August 2007 | 15 | 14 : 1 | 77% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
July 2007 | 14 | 13 : 1 | 78% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
June 2007 | 16 | 15 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.7% |
May 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 77% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.7% |
April 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.8% |
March 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
February 2007 | 21 | 20 : 1 | 74% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
January 2007 | 20 | 17 : 3 | 72% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
December 2006 | 15 | 12 : 3 | 66% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.3% | 2.8% |
November 2006 | 22 | 16 : 6 | 64% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.5% | 2.9% |
October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3.1% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
Period | Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit | Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation | Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate | Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 | Forecast for conversion rate of SKK/EUR* |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
March 2008 | 93% | 82% | 94% | n | 32.44 (14) |
February 2008 | 91% | 79% | 95% | n | 32.58 (15) |
January 2008 | 90% | 80% | 93% | n | 32.72 (13) |
December 2007 | 90% | 80% | 93% | n | 32.64 (18) |
November 2007 | 85% | 81% | 93% | 32.98 | 32.63 (17) |
October 2007 | 78% | 85% | 88% | 33.02 | 32.61 (15) |
September 2007 | 77% | 85% | 85% | 33.13 | 32.66 (11) |
August 2007 | 81% | 86% | 90% | 32.78 | 32.51 (13) |
July 2007 | 81% | 85% | 89% | 32.78 | 32.58 (12) |
June 2007 | 79% | 85% | 88% | 32.68 | 32.44 (11) |
May 2007 | 82% | 86% | 88% | 32.68 | 32.39 (14) |
April 2007 | 79% | 86% | 89% | 32.68 | 32.34 (14) |
March 2007 | 80% | 86% | 88% | 32.65 | n |
February 2007 | 80% | 83% | 88% | 33.74 | n |
January 2007 | 79% | 83% | 89% | 33.91 | n |
December 2006 | 79% | 72% | 88% | 33.92 | n |
November 2006 | 76% | 72% | n | n | n |
October 2006 | 71% | 63% | n | n | n |
September 2006 | 66% | 61% | n | n | n |
n – Not included in the survey *The number in parentheses represents the number of analysts assessing the conversion rate.