The survey on assessments of meeting the Maastricht criteria by Slovakia

Dátum: 02.04.2008

INEKO (Institute for Economic and Social Reforms) and KEA (The Slovak Association of Economic Analysts) conduct surveys among local experts on assessing the probability of Slovakia to adopt the euro on January 1st 2009. The surveys reflect key government measures (such as the approval of the state budget, etc.) and how they change the probability of adopting euro in a given time frame. The goal of this project is to increase public awareness and explain the key steps necessary to meet the Maastricht criteria for adopting euro.

Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)

Period Number of participating experts Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 Public finance deficit for 2007* Inflation** Reference inflation***
March 2008 19 17 : 2 82% 2.2% of GDP 2.3% 3.2%
February 2008 18 16 : 2 80% 2.4% of GDP 2.3% 3.0%
January 2008 18 16 : 2 78% 2.5% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
December 2007 23 19 : 4 78% 2.5% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
November 2007 21 18 : 3 75% 2.6% of GDP 2.0% 2.8%
October 2007 19 17 : 2 71% 2.8% of GDP 1.9% 2.7%
September 2007 16 13 : 3 70% 2.9% of GDP 1.8% 2.6%
August 2007 15 14 : 1 77% 2.8% of GDP 1.9% 2.7%
July 2007 14 13 : 1 78% 2.8% of GDP 1.9% 2.7%
June 2007 16 15 : 1 76% 2.9% of GDP 2.0% 2.7%
May 2007 18 17 : 1 77% 2.9% of GDP 2.0% 2.7%
April 2007 18 17 : 1 76% 2.9% of GDP 2.0% 2.8%
March 2007 18 17 : 1 76% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
February 2007 21 20 : 1 74% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
January 2007 20 17 : 3 72% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
December 2006 15 12 : 3 66% 2.9% of GDP 2.3% 2.8%
November 2006 22 16 : 6 64% 3.0% of GDP 2.5% 2.9%
October 2006 20 11 : 9 56% 3.0% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%
September 2006 20 10 : 10 52% 3.1% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%

*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries

Period Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 Forecast for conversion rate of SKK/EUR*
March 2008 93% 82% 94% n 32.44 (14)
February 2008 91% 79% 95% n 32.58 (15)
January 2008 90% 80% 93% n 32.72 (13)
December 2007 90% 80% 93% n 32.64 (18)
November 2007 85% 81% 93% 32.98 32.63 (17)
October 2007 78% 85% 88% 33.02 32.61 (15)
September 2007 77% 85% 85% 33.13 32.66 (11)
August 2007 81% 86% 90% 32.78 32.51 (13)
July 2007 81% 85% 89% 32.78 32.58 (12)
June 2007 79% 85% 88% 32.68 32.44 (11)
May 2007 82% 86% 88% 32.68 32.39 (14)
April 2007 79% 86% 89% 32.68 32.34 (14)
March 2007 80% 86% 88% 32.65 n
February 2007 80% 83% 88% 33.74 n
January 2007 79% 83% 89% 33.91 n
December 2006 79% 72% 88% 33.92 n
November 2006 76% 72% n n n
October 2006 71% 63% n n n
September 2006 66% 61% n n n

n – Not included in the survey *The number in parentheses represents the number of analysts assessing the conversion rate.

Maastricht - graf

List of surveys on assessments of meeting the Maastricht criteria by Slovakia: