Dátum: 18.10.2006
The state budget for 2007 approved by the Slovak government raised the probability that Slovakia will adopt the euro on January 1st 2009 from 52% to 56%. The results come from a flash-survey among 20 local experts addressed by Bratislava-based think-tank INEKO (Institute for Economic and Social Reforms) shortly after approving the state budget on October 11th 2006. Eleven out of twenty local economists and analysts think that the present government will meet the euro target and nine that it will not. The results are more optimistic than in September when the split was exactly equal 10:10 and, on average, the experts assessed the probability to be 52%.
The results show more optimistic views of the public finance deficit in 2007. The September average forecast of 3.1% of GDP went down to 3.0% of GDP after approving the budget. The average forecasts of inflation remained unchanged.
Compared to September survey, three new experts took part on a flash-survey and three out of twenty experts did not send their forecasts on deadline.
Note: We updated the results on October 12th by adding the forecasts of remaining three experts. The average forecasts remained unchanged.
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
| Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3,1% of GDP | 2,8% | 2,9% |
| October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3,0% of GDP | 2,8% | 2,9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
List of surveyed experts