Dátum: 18.10.2006
The Slovak experts are split in their views whether Slovakia will adopt the euro on January 1st 2009. Ten out of twenty local economists and analysts addressed by INEKO (Institute for Economic and Social Reforms) and KEA (The Slovak Association of Economic Analysts) think that the present Slovak government will meet this target and ten that it will not. On average, they assess the probability of adopting euro since 2009 to be 52% with the lowest forecast of 10% and the highest of 80%. The survey shows significant uncertainty of experts in judging the ability of the government to meet the Maastricht criteria for adopting euro in the given time frame.
Many experts agreed that the approval of the 2007 state budget will be the next milestone on the way to euro. In the budget the government will have to decide to what extent it will fulfill its generous promises. The government will be helped by the fast economic growth which will allow it to spend more money than last year. However, this could bring a higher inflation. The experts noticed that even if Slovakia meets the formal criteria, it may not be accepted in the euro club. The risk is the sustainability of adhering to the criteria in the longer time period.
Summary of the survey results (September 2006, average forecast):
Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3,1% of GDP | 2,8% | 2,9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
List of surveyed experts: