The survey on assessments of meeting the Maastricht criteria by Slovakia (October 4th, 2006)

Dátum: 18.10.2006

Local experts split on whether Slovakia joins eurozone on Jan 1, 2009

The Slovak experts are split in their views whether Slovakia will adopt the euro on January 1st 2009. Ten out of twenty local economists and analysts addressed by INEKO (Institute for Economic and Social Reforms) and KEA (The Slovak Association of Economic Analysts) think that the present Slovak government will meet this target and ten that it will not. On average, they assess the probability of adopting euro since 2009 to be 52% with the lowest forecast of 10% and the highest of 80%. The survey shows significant uncertainty of experts in judging the ability of the government to meet the Maastricht criteria for adopting euro in the given time frame.

Many experts agreed that the approval of the 2007 state budget will be the next milestone on the way to euro. In the budget the government will have to decide to what extent it will fulfill its generous promises. The government will be helped by the fast economic growth which will allow it to spend more money than last year. However, this could bring a higher inflation. The experts noticed that even if Slovakia meets the formal criteria, it may not be accepted in the euro club. The risk is the sustainability of adhering to the criteria in the longer time period.

Summary of the survey results (September 2006, average forecast):

Period Number of participating experts Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 Public finance deficit for 2007* Inflation** Reference inflation***
September 2006 20 10 : 10 52% 3,1% of GDP 2,8% 2,9%

*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries

List of surveyed experts:

  1. Blaščák Mário, Allianz – Slovenská DSS
  2. Čechovičová Silvia, ČSOB
  3. Gábriš Marek, ČSOB
  4. Hagara Eduard, ING Bank
  5. Jurzyca Eugen, INEKO
  6. Kohútiková Elena, VÚB, former vice governor of the National Bank of Slovakia|
  7. Koršňák Ľubomír, Unibanka
  8. Kotian Juraj, SLSP
  9. Lenko Martin, VÚB
  10. Marcinčin Anton, World bank
  11. Morvay Karol, MESA10
  12. Mušák Michal, SLSP
  13. Ondriska Pavol, ING DSS
  14. Pätoprstý Viliam, Unibanka
  15. Prega Robert, Tatra banka
  16. Senkovič Marek, Slovnaft
  17. Štefanides Zdeno, VÚB
  18. Štekláčová Lucia, ING Bank
  19. Tóth Ján, ING Bank
  20. Tvaroška Vladimír, Former Deputy Minister of Finance of the SR|