Dátum: 01.10.2007
The probability of Slovakia adopting euro from 2009 fell down from 77% in August to 70% in September. The main reason was the expected rise in the public finance deficit after changing the Eurostat rules for deficit counting as well as the concern about the sustainability of the public finance deficit in the long run. The concern relates to some of the government plans to adopt measures that local economists believe will lead to higher deficit in the future. In September, 16 local experts took part on a regular INEKO survey. From among them, 13 believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and 3 that it will not. The average conversion rate assessed by eleven analysts was 32.66 SKK/EUR. The assessments ranged from 32.00 SKK/EUR to 33.30 SKK/EUR.
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
| Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2007 | 16 | 13 : 3 | 70% | 2.9% of GDP | 1.8% | 2.6% |
| August 2007 | 15 | 14 : 1 | 77% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| July 2007 | 14 | 13 : 1 | 78% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| June 2007 | 16 | 15 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| May 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 77% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| April 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.8% |
| March 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| February 2007 | 21 | 20 : 1 | 74% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| January 2007 | 20 | 17 : 3 | 72% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| December 2006 | 15 | 12 : 3 | 66% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| November 2006 | 22 | 16 : 6 | 64% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3.1% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
| Period | Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit | Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation | Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate | Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 | Forecast for conversion rate of SKK/EUR* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2007 | 77% | 85% | 85% | 33.13 | 32.66 (11) |
| August 2007 | 81% | 86% | 90% | 32.78 | 32.51 (13) |
| July 2007 | 81% | 85% | 89% | 32.78 | 32.58 (12) |
| June 2007 | 79% | 85% | 88% | 32.68 | 32.44 (11) |
| May 2007 | 82% | 86% | 88% | 32.68 | 32.39 (14) |
| April 2007 | 79% | 86% | 89% | 32.68 | 32.34 (14) |
| March 2007 | 80% | 86% | 88% | 32.65 | n |
| February 2007 | 80% | 83% | 88% | 33.74 | n |
| January 2007 | 79% | 83% | 89% | 33.91 | n |
| December 2006 | 79% | 72% | 88% | 33.92 | n |
| November 2006 | 76% | 72% | n | n | n |
| October 2006 | 71% | 63% | n | n | n |
| September 2006 | 66% | 61% | n | n | n |
n – Not included in the survey *The number in parentheses represents the number of analysts assessing the conversion rate.
List of surveyed experts: