Dátum: 11.01.2007
Rapid appreciation of koruna may be a barrier on the way to euro. This would happen mainly if the central bank continued in interventions or revaluated central parity, which is the exchange rate around which koruna may be floating in the ERM II. It is questionable if Slovakia would be able to defend such policy before EU institutions.
These opinions come out of a December 2006 survey among local experts addressed by INEKO. To meet the criterion on the currency stability, koruna should be floating in the range +/-15% around the central parity of 38.46 SKK/EUR. At the end of 2006 koruna appreciated to its record level of 34.06 SKK/EUR which was more than 11% below the central parity. The central bank reacted by direct intervention.
Despite doubts on currency development, the experts consider this criterion to be less risky than criteria on fiscal deficit and inflation. On average, they assessed 88% probability that Slovakia will meet currency stability criterion, 79% that it will meet the criterion on the fiscal deficit, and 72% that it will meet the inflation criterion.
In December 15 experts (local economists and analysts) took part on the survey. Compared to November seven experts did not take part. This was mainly due to holiday at the end of the year. Twelve out of 15 experts think that the present government will meet the euro target and three that it will not. The average results show more optimistic views compared to November. The average probability that Slovakia will adopt euro on January 1st 2009 went up from 64% to 66%. The outlook for the fiscal deficit in 2007 decreased from 3.0% to 2.9% of GDP and the outlook for inflation decreased from 2.5% to 2.3% (12-month average inflation at the end of March 2008).
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
| Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3.1% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| November 2006 | 22 | 16 : 6 | 64% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| December 2006 | 15 | 12 : 3 | 66% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.3% | 2.8% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
List of surveyed experts: