The survey on assessments of meeting the Maastricht criteria by Slovakia (February 6th, 2007)

Dátum: 02.02.2007

Probability of 2009 euro adoption increased from 66% to 72%

The local economists and analysts assessed the probability that Slovakia will adopt euro on January 1st 2009 to go up from 66% in December 2006 to 72% in January 2007. More optimistic view is a result of better inflation outlook caused by fall in the oil price and strengthening of koruna during last few months.

The results come from a survey among 20 local experts addressed by INEKO. Out of them, seventeen believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and three that it will not.

Compared to December 2006, the results show more optimistic views of the inflation. The average forecasts for 12-month average inflation at the end of March 2008 went down from 2.3% in December 2006 to 2.1% in January 2007. This is safely below 2.8% forecast for the inflation threshold. Thus, Slovakia should fulfill the inflation criterion nominally. However, several analysts noted that the problem could be the sustainability of its fulfillment.

In January 2007, the forecasts for the public finance deficit remained unchanged at 2.9% of GDP. The analysts expect further appreciation of koruna which should end 2007 at 33.91 SKK/EUR.

Compared to December 2006, six new experts took part on a January 2007 survey. One expert did not send his forecasts on deadline.

Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)

Period Number of participating experts Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 Public finance deficit for 2007* Inflation** Reference inflation***
January 2007 20 17 : 3 72% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
December 2006 15 12 : 3 66% 2.9% of GDP 2.3% 2.8%
November 2006 22 16 : 6 64% 3.0% of GDP 2.5% 2.9%
October 2006 20 11 : 9 56% 3.0% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%
September 2006 20 10 : 10 52% 3.1% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%

*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries

Period Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007
January 2007 79% 83% 89% 33.91
December 2006 79% 72% 88% 33.92
November 2006 76% 72% n n
October 2006 71% 63% n n
September 2006 66% 61% n n

n – Not included in the survey

List of surveyed experts:

  1. Čechovičová Silvia, ČSOB
  2. Gábriš Marek, ČSOB
  3. Hagara Eduar, ING Bank
  4. Jurzyca Eugen, INEKO
  5. Kohútiková Elena, VÚB, former vice governor of the National Bank of Slovakia
  6. Koršňák Ľubomír, Unibanka
  7. Kotian Juraj, SLSP
  8. Kovalčík Ján, Trend Analyses
  9. Lenko Martin, VÚB
  10. Marcinčin Anton, The World Bank
  11. Mušák Michal, SLSP
  12. Ondriska Pavol, ING DSS
  13. Pažitný Peter, Health Policy Institute
  14. Pätoprstý Viliam, Unibanka
  15. Plojhar Miroslav, Citibank Praha
  16. Prega Róbert, Tatra banka
  17. Senkovič Marek, Slovnaft
  18. Štekláčová Lucia, ING Bank
  19. Tóth Ján, ING Bank
  20. Tvaroška Vladimír, Former Deputy Minister of Finance of the SR