Dátum: 02.02.2007
The local economists and analysts assessed the probability that Slovakia will adopt euro on January 1st 2009 to go up from 66% in December 2006 to 72% in January 2007. More optimistic view is a result of better inflation outlook caused by fall in the oil price and strengthening of koruna during last few months.
The results come from a survey among 20 local experts addressed by INEKO. Out of them, seventeen believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and three that it will not.
Compared to December 2006, the results show more optimistic views of the inflation. The average forecasts for 12-month average inflation at the end of March 2008 went down from 2.3% in December 2006 to 2.1% in January 2007. This is safely below 2.8% forecast for the inflation threshold. Thus, Slovakia should fulfill the inflation criterion nominally. However, several analysts noted that the problem could be the sustainability of its fulfillment.
In January 2007, the forecasts for the public finance deficit remained unchanged at 2.9% of GDP. The analysts expect further appreciation of koruna which should end 2007 at 33.91 SKK/EUR.
Compared to December 2006, six new experts took part on a January 2007 survey. One expert did not send his forecasts on deadline.
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
January 2007 | 20 | 17 : 3 | 72% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
December 2006 | 15 | 12 : 3 | 66% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.3% | 2.8% |
November 2006 | 22 | 16 : 6 | 64% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.5% | 2.9% |
October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3.1% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
Period | Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit | Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation | Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate | Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 |
---|---|---|---|---|
January 2007 | 79% | 83% | 89% | 33.91 |
December 2006 | 79% | 72% | 88% | 33.92 |
November 2006 | 76% | 72% | n | n |
October 2006 | 71% | 63% | n | n |
September 2006 | 66% | 61% | n | n |
n – Not included in the survey
List of surveyed experts: