The survey on assessments of meeting the Maastricht criteria by Slovakia (February 4th 2008)

Dátum: 04.02.2008

Probability of euro adoption was 78% in January

The probability of Slovakia adopting euro from 2009 remained unchanged at 78% in January 2008. According to local economic analysts Slovakia should technically meet all relevant Maastricht criteria: The public finance deficit in 2007 should be at 2.5% of GDP (criterion is 3%); the average 12-month inflation in March 2008 should be at 2.1% (criterion – inflation in 3 best EU countries – should be 2.8%). The questions remain regarding their sustainable fulfillment, mainly due to expected rise in inflation. In January, 18 local experts took part on a regular INEKO survey. From among them, 16 believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and 2 that it will not. The average conversion rate assessed by 13 analysts was 32.72 SKK/EUR. The assessments ranged from 32.30 SKK/EUR to 33.00 SKK/EUR.

Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)

Period Number of participating experts Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 Public finance deficit for 2007* Inflation** Reference inflation***
January 2008 18 16 : 2 78% 2.5% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
December 2007 23 19 : 4 78% 2.5% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
November 2007 21 18 : 3 75% 2.6% of GDP 2.0% 2.8%
October 2007 19 17 : 2 71% 2.8% of GDP 1.9% 2.7%
September 2007 16 13 : 3 70% 2.9% of GDP 1.8% 2.6%
August 2007 15 14 : 1 77% 2.8% of GDP 1.9% 2.7%
July 2007 14 13 : 1 78% 2.8% of GDP 1.9% 2.7%
June 2007 16 15 : 1 76% 2.9% of GDP 2.0% 2.7%
May 2007 18 17 : 1 77% 2.9% of GDP 2.0% 2.7%
April 2007 18 17 : 1 76% 2.9% of GDP 2.0% 2.8%
March 2007 18 17 : 1 76% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
February 2007 21 20 : 1 74% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
January 2007 20 17 : 3 72% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
December 2006 15 12 : 3 66% 2.9% of GDP 2.3% 2.8%
November 2006 22 16 : 6 64% 3.0% of GDP 2.5% 2.9%
October 2006 20 11 : 9 56% 3.0% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%
September 2006 20 10 : 10 52% 3.1% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%

*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries

Period Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 Forecast for conversion rate of SKK/EUR*
January 2008 90% 80% 93% n 32.72 (13)
December 2007 90% 80% 93% n 32.64 (18)
November 2007 85% 81% 93% 32.98 32.63 (17)
October 2007 78% 85% 88% 33.02 32.61 (15)
September 2007 77% 85% 85% 33.13 32.66 (11)
August 2007 81% 86% 90% 32.78 32.51 (13)
July 2007 81% 85% 89% 32.78 32.58 (12)
June 2007 79% 85% 88% 32.68 32.44 (11)
May 2007 82% 86% 88% 32.68 32.39 (14)
April 2007 79% 86% 89% 32.68 32.34 (14)
March 2007 80% 86% 88% 32.65 n
February 2007 80% 83% 88% 33.74 n
January 2007 79% 83% 89% 33.91 n
December 2006 79% 72% 88% 33.92 n
November 2006 76% 72% n n n
October 2006 71% 63% n n n
September 2006 66% 61% n n n

n – Not included in the survey *The number in parentheses represents the number of analysts assessing the conversion rate.

Maastricht - graf

List of surveyed experts:

  1. Barta Juraj, Slovenská sporiteľňa
  2. Čechovičová Silvia, ČSOB
  3. Hagara Eduard, ING Bank
  4. Jurzyca Eugen, INEKO
  5. Kohútiková Elena, VUB, former vicegovernor of the National Bank of Slovakia
  6. Koršňák Ľubomír, UniCredit Bank
  7. Lenko Martin, VÚB
  8. Mušák Michal, SLSP
  9. Ondriska Pavol, ING DSS
  10. Pažitný Peter, Health Policy Institute
  11. Pätoprstý Viliam, UniCredit Bank
  12. Plojhar Miroslav, JP Morgan Prague
  13. Prega Róbert, Tatra banka
  14. Sárazová Eva, Poštová banka
  15. Štefanides Zdeno, VÚB
  16. Tóth Ján, ING Bank
  17. Tvaroška Vladimír, Former Deputy Minister of Finance of the SR
  18. Zlacký Vladimír, Ernst & Young