The survey on assessments of meeting the Maastricht criteria by Slovakia (November 6th, 2007)
Dátum: 05.11.2007
Probability of euro adoption was 71% in October
The probability of Slovakia adopting euro from 2009 was 71% in October compared to 70% in September. The probability increased thanks to the government approval of the state budget for 2008 which meets criteria for adopting euro. However, the rise in probability was hindered by the government plans to start huge PPP projects of building highways and thus threatening the sustainability of the public finance. In October, 19 local experts took part on a regular INEKO survey. From among them, 17 believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and 2 that it will not. The average conversion rate assessed by 15 analysts was 32.61 SKK/EUR. The assessments ranged from 32.00 SKK/EUR to 33.30 SKK/EUR.
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
| Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2007 | 19 | 17 : 2 | 71% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| September 2007 | 16 | 13 : 3 | 70% | 2.9% of GDP | 1.8% | 2.6% |
| August 2007 | 15 | 14 : 1 | 77% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| July 2007 | 14 | 13 : 1 | 78% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| June 2007 | 16 | 15 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| May 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 77% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| April 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.8% |
| March 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| February 2007 | 21 | 20 : 1 | 74% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| January 2007 | 20 | 17 : 3 | 72% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| December 2006 | 15 | 12 : 3 | 66% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| November 2006 | 22 | 16 : 6 | 64% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3.1% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
| Period | Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit | Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation | Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate | Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 | Forecast for conversion rate of SKK/EUR* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2007 | 78% | 85% | 88% | 33.02 | 32.61 (15) |
| September 2007 | 77% | 85% | 85% | 33.13 | 32.66 (11) |
| August 2007 | 81% | 86% | 90% | 32.78 | 32.51 (13) |
| July 2007 | 81% | 85% | 89% | 32.78 | 32.58 (12) |
| June 2007 | 79% | 85% | 88% | 32.68 | 32.44 (11) |
| May 2007 | 82% | 86% | 88% | 32.68 | 32.39 (14) |
| April 2007 | 79% | 86% | 89% | 32.68 | 32.34 (14) |
| March 2007 | 80% | 86% | 88% | 32.65 | n |
| February 2007 | 80% | 83% | 88% | 33.74 | n |
| January 2007 | 79% | 83% | 89% | 33.91 | n |
| December 2006 | 79% | 72% | 88% | 33.92 | n |
| November 2006 | 76% | 72% | n | n | n |
| October 2006 | 71% | 63% | n | n | n |
| September 2006 | 66% | 61% | n | n | n |
n – Not included in the survey *The number in parentheses represents the number of analysts assessing the conversion rate.
List of surveyed experts:
- Barta Juraj, SLSP
- Čechovičová Silvia, ČSOB
- Gábriš Marek, ČSOB
- Hagara Eduard, ING Bank
- Jurzyca Eugen, INEKO
- Kohútiková Elena, VUB, former vicegovernor of the National Bank of Slovakia
- Koršňák Ľubomír, UniCredit Bank
- Kotian Juraj, Erste Bank Vienna
- Mušák Michal, SLSP
- Ondriska Pavol, ING DSS
- Pažitný Peter, Health Policy Institute
- Pätoprstý Viliam, UniCredit Bank
- Plojhar Miroslav, JP Morgan Prague
- Prega Róbert, Tatra banka
- Senkovič Marek, Slovnaft
- Šrámková Lucia, ING Bank
- Tóth Ján, ING Bank
- Tvaroška Vladimír, Former Deputy Minister of Finance of the SR
- Zlacký Vladimír, Ernst & Young