Dátum: 03.05.2007
The probability that Slovakia will adopt euro on January 1st 2009 was 76% in April and remained unchanged compared to March. Thus, the probability did not grow for the first time since September 2006 when INEKO launched a survey among local economists and analysts about their views of Slovakia adopting euro from 2009. From among 18 local experts, seventeen believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and one that it will not.
Compared to March, the results show no significant changes in the assessments (see the tables below).
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
April 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.8% |
March 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
February 2007 | 21 | 20 : 1 | 74% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
January 2007 | 20 | 17 : 3 | 72% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
December 2006 | 15 | 12 : 3 | 66% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.3% | 2.8% |
November 2006 | 22 | 16 : 6 | 64% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.5% | 2.9% |
October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3.1% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
Period | Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit | Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation | Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate | Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 |
---|---|---|---|---|
April 2007 | 79% | 86% | 89% | 32.68 |
March 2007 | 80% | 86% | 88% | 32.65 |
February 2007 | 80% | 83% | 88% | 33.74 |
January 2007 | 79% | 83% | 89% | 33.91 |
December 2006 | 79% | 72% | 88% | 33.92 |
November 2006 | 76% | 72% | n | n |
October 2006 | 71% | 63% | n | n |
September 2006 | 66% | 61% | n | n |
n – Not included in the survey
List of surveyed experts: