The survey on assessments of meeting the Maastricht criteria by Slovakia (May 4th, 2007)

Dátum: 03.05.2007

Growth of probability of 2009 euro adoption stopped at 76%

The probability that Slovakia will adopt euro on January 1st 2009 was 76% in April and remained unchanged compared to March. Thus, the probability did not grow for the first time since September 2006 when INEKO launched a survey among local economists and analysts about their views of Slovakia adopting euro from 2009. From among 18 local experts, seventeen believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and one that it will not.

Compared to March, the results show no significant changes in the assessments (see the tables below).

Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)

Period Number of participating experts Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 Public finance deficit for 2007* Inflation** Reference inflation***
April 2007 18 17 : 1 76% 2.9% of GDP 2.0% 2.8%
March 2007 18 17 : 1 76% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
February 2007 21 20 : 1 74% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
January 2007 20 17 : 3 72% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
December 2006 15 12 : 3 66% 2.9% of GDP 2.3% 2.8%
November 2006 22 16 : 6 64% 3.0% of GDP 2.5% 2.9%
October 2006 20 11 : 9 56% 3.0% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%
September 2006 20 10 : 10 52% 3.1% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%

*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries

Period Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007
April 2007 79% 86% 89% 32.68
March 2007 80% 86% 88% 32.65
February 2007 80% 83% 88% 33.74
January 2007 79% 83% 89% 33.91
December 2006 79% 72% 88% 33.92
November 2006 76% 72% n n
October 2006 71% 63% n n
September 2006 66% 61% n n

n – Not included in the survey

List of surveyed experts:

  1. Blaščák Mário, Allianz – Slovenská DSS
  2. Gábriš Marek, ČSOB
  3. Hagara Eduard, ING Bank
  4. Jurzyca Eugen, INEKO
  5. Kohútiková Elena, VÚB, former vice governor of the National Bank of Slovakia
  6. Koršňák Ľubomír, UniCredit Bank
  7. Kovalčík Ján, Trend Analyses
  8. Lenko Martin, VÚB
  9. Marcinčin Anton, The World Bank
  10. Mušák Michal, SLSP
  11. Ondriska Pavol, ING DSS
  12. Pažitný Peter, Health Policy Institute
  13. Pätoprstý Viliam, UniCredit Bank
  14. Prega Róbert, Tatra banka
  15. Senkovič Marek, Slovnaft
  16. Štekláčová Lucia, ING Bank
  17. Tóth Ján, ING Bank
  18. Tvaroška Vladimír, Former Deputy Minister of Finance of the SR