The survey on assessments of meeting the Maastricht criteria by Slovakia (March 6th, 2007)

Dátum: 06.03.2007

Probability of 2009 euro adoption increased from 72% to 74%

The local economists and analysts assessed the probability that Slovakia will adopt euro on January 1st 2009 to go up from 72% in January 2007 to 74% in February 2007. More optimistic view is a result of higher than expected GDP growth projected for 2007 and related better outlook for fulfilling the Maastricht criteria on the public finance deficit.

The results come from a survey among 21 local experts addressed by INEKO. Out of them, twenty believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and one that it will not.

Compared to January, the results show no significant changes in the assessments. The average forecasts for 12-month average inflation at the end of March 2008 remained at 2.1%. Similarly, the forecasts for the public finance deficit in 2007 remained unchanged at 2.9% of GDP. The analysts expect further appreciation of koruna which should end 2007 at 33.74 SKK/EUR.

Compared to January, one new expert took part on a February survey.

Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)

Period Number of participating experts Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 Public finance deficit for 2007* Inflation** Reference inflation***
February 2007 21 20 : 1 74% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
January 2007 20 17 : 3 72% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
December 2006 15 12 : 3 66% 2.9% of GDP 2.3% 2.8%
November 2006 22 16 : 6 64% 3.0% of GDP 2.5% 2.9%
October 2006 20 11 : 9 56% 3.0% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%
September 2006 20 10 : 10 52% 3.1% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%

*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries

Period Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007
February 2007 80% 83% 88% 33.74
January 2007 79% 83% 89% 33.91
December 2006 79% 72% 88% 33.92
November 2006 76% 72% n n
October 2006 71% 63% n n
September 2006 66% 61% n n

n – Not included in the survey

List of surveyed experts:

  1. Blaščák Mário, Allianz – Slovenská DSS
  2. Čechovičová Silvia, ČSOB
  3. Gábriš Marek, ČSOB
  4. Hagara Eduard, ING Bank
  5. Jurzyca Eugen, INEKO
  6. Kohútiková Elena, VÚB, former vice governor of the National Bank of Slovakia
  7. Koršňák Ľubomír, Unibanka
  8. Kotian Juraj, SLSP
  9. Kovalčík Ján, Trend Analyses
  10. Lenko Martin, VÚB
  11. Marcinčin Anton, The World Bank
  12. Mušák Michal, SLSP
  13. Ondriska Pavol, ING DSS
  14. Pažitný Peter, Health Policy Institute
  15. Pätoprstý Viliam, Unibanka
  16. Plojhar Miroslav, Citibank Praha
  17. Prega Róbert, Tatra banka
  18. Senkovič Marek, Slovnaft
  19. Štekláčová Lucia, ING Bank
  20. Tóth Ján, ING Bank
  21. Tvaroška Vladimír, Former Deputy Minister of Finance of the SR