Dátum: 06.03.2007
The local economists and analysts assessed the probability that Slovakia will adopt euro on January 1st 2009 to go up from 72% in January 2007 to 74% in February 2007. More optimistic view is a result of higher than expected GDP growth projected for 2007 and related better outlook for fulfilling the Maastricht criteria on the public finance deficit.
The results come from a survey among 21 local experts addressed by INEKO. Out of them, twenty believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and one that it will not.
Compared to January, the results show no significant changes in the assessments. The average forecasts for 12-month average inflation at the end of March 2008 remained at 2.1%. Similarly, the forecasts for the public finance deficit in 2007 remained unchanged at 2.9% of GDP. The analysts expect further appreciation of koruna which should end 2007 at 33.74 SKK/EUR.
Compared to January, one new expert took part on a February survey.
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
February 2007 | 21 | 20 : 1 | 74% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
January 2007 | 20 | 17 : 3 | 72% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
December 2006 | 15 | 12 : 3 | 66% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.3% | 2.8% |
November 2006 | 22 | 16 : 6 | 64% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.5% | 2.9% |
October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3.1% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
Period | Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit | Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation | Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate | Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 |
---|---|---|---|---|
February 2007 | 80% | 83% | 88% | 33.74 |
January 2007 | 79% | 83% | 89% | 33.91 |
December 2006 | 79% | 72% | 88% | 33.92 |
November 2006 | 76% | 72% | n | n |
October 2006 | 71% | 63% | n | n |
September 2006 | 66% | 61% | n | n |
n – Not included in the survey
List of surveyed experts: