The survey on assessments of meeting the Maastricht criteria by Slovakia (March 4th 2008)
Dátum: 04.03.2008
Euro probability reached its peak 80% in February
The probability of Slovakia adopting euro from 2009 increased to 80% in February which is a record level since the beginning of the INEKO survey in September 2006. The median increased to 85% in February when 10 out of 18 local economic analysts assessed probability 85% or higher. Positive mood is a result of the higher than expected growth of GDP in 2007 as well as more restrictive public expenditure in 2008 and later promised by the government. According to analysts, Slovakia should have public finance deficit in 2007 at 2.4% of GDP (criterion is 3%); and the average 12-month inflation in March 2008 should be at 2.3% (criterion – inflation in 3 best EU countries – should be 3.0%). The main question remains whether Slovakia will keep low inflation after euro adoption. In February, 18 local experts took part on a regular INEKO survey. From among them, 16 believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and 2 that it will not. The average conversion rate assessed by 15 analysts was 32.58 SKK/EUR. The assessments ranged from 32.30 SKK/EUR to 33.33 SKK/EUR.
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
| Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 2008 | 18 | 16 : 2 | 80% | 2.4% of GDP | 2.3% | 3.0% |
| January 2008 | 18 | 16 : 2 | 78% | 2.5% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| December 2007 | 23 | 19 : 4 | 78% | 2.5% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| November 2007 | 21 | 18 : 3 | 75% | 2.6% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.8% |
| October 2007 | 19 | 17 : 2 | 71% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| September 2007 | 16 | 13 : 3 | 70% | 2.9% of GDP | 1.8% | 2.6% |
| August 2007 | 15 | 14 : 1 | 77% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| July 2007 | 14 | 13 : 1 | 78% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| June 2007 | 16 | 15 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| May 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 77% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| April 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.8% |
| March 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| February 2007 | 21 | 20 : 1 | 74% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| January 2007 | 20 | 17 : 3 | 72% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| December 2006 | 15 | 12 : 3 | 66% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| November 2006 | 22 | 16 : 6 | 64% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3.1% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
| Period | Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit | Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation | Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate | Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 | Forecast for conversion rate of SKK/EUR* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 2008 | 91% | 79% | 95% | n | 32.58 (15) |
| January 2008 | 90% | 80% | 93% | n | 32.72 (13) |
| December 2007 | 90% | 80% | 93% | n | 32.64 (18) |
| November 2007 | 85% | 81% | 93% | 32.98 | 32.63 (17) |
| October 2007 | 78% | 85% | 88% | 33.02 | 32.61 (15) |
| September 2007 | 77% | 85% | 85% | 33.13 | 32.66 (11) |
| August 2007 | 81% | 86% | 90% | 32.78 | 32.51 (13) |
| July 2007 | 81% | 85% | 89% | 32.78 | 32.58 (12) |
| June 2007 | 79% | 85% | 88% | 32.68 | 32.44 (11) |
| May 2007 | 82% | 86% | 88% | 32.68 | 32.39 (14) |
| April 2007 | 79% | 86% | 89% | 32.68 | 32.34 (14) |
| March 2007 | 80% | 86% | 88% | 32.65 | n |
| February 2007 | 80% | 83% | 88% | 33.74 | n |
| January 2007 | 79% | 83% | 89% | 33.91 | n |
| December 2006 | 79% | 72% | 88% | 33.92 | n |
| November 2006 | 76% | 72% | n | n | n |
| October 2006 | 71% | 63% | n | n | n |
| September 2006 | 66% | 61% | n | n | n |
n – Not included in the survey *The number in parentheses represents the number of analysts assessing the conversion rate.
List of surveyed experts:
- Barta Juraj, Slovenská sporiteľňa
- Blaščák Mário, Allianz – Slovenská DSS
- Čechovičová Silvia, ČSOB
- Gábriš Marek, ČSOB
- Jurzyca Eugen, INEKO
- Kohútiková Elena, VUB, former vicegovernor of the National Bank of Slovakia
- Koršňák Ľubomír, UniCredit Bank
- Lenko Martin, VÚB
- Mušák Michal, SLSP
- Ondriska Pavol, ING DSS
- Pažitný Peter, Health Policy Institute
- Pätoprstý Viliam, UniCredit Bank
- Prega Róbert, Tatra banka
- Sárazová Eva, Poštová banka
- Senkovič Marek, Slovnaft
- Tóth Ján, ING Bank
- Tvaroška Vladimír, Former Deputy Minister of Finance of the SR
- Zlacký Vladimír, Ernst & Young