Dátum: 05.12.2006
Fast GDP growth, fall of oil prices, stronger SKK and lower than expected growth of regulated prices (gas, electricity, heat) – these are the main factors that raised probability that Slovakia will adopt euro on January 1st 2009. The local economists and analysts assessed the probability to go up to 64% in November compared to 56% in October.
The results come from a survey among 22 local experts addressed by Bratislava-based think-tank INEKO (Institute for Economic and Social Reforms). Sixteen out of 22 local economists and analysts think that the present government will meet the euro target and six that it will not. The results are much more optimistic than in October when the split was 11:9.
The results show more optimistic views of the inflation. The average forecasts of 12-month average inflation at the end of March 2008 went down from 2.8% in October to 2.5% in November. The forecasts for the public finance deficit remained unchanged.
Compared to October survey, four new experts took part on a November survey and two experts did not send their forecasts on deadline.
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
| Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3,1% of GDP | 2,8% | 2,9% |
| October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3,0% of GDP | 2,8% | 2,9% |
| November 2006 | 22 | 16 : 6 | 64% | 3,0% of GDP | 2,5% | 2,9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
List of surveyed experts: