Dátum: 04.04.2007
The local economists and analysts assessed the probability that Slovakia will adopt euro on January 1st 2009 to go up from 74% in February 2007 to 76% in March 2007. More optimistic view is a result of higher probability of meeting the inflation criterion thanks to the strengthening of the Slovak koruna after the revaluation of the central parity from 38.46 SKK/EUR to 35.44 SKK/EUR.
The results come from a survey among 18 local experts addressed by INEKO. Out of them, seventeen believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and one that it will not.
Compared to January, the results show no significant changes in the assessments. The average forecasts for 12-month average inflation at the end of March 2008 remained at 2.1%. Similarly, the forecasts for the public finance deficit in 2007 remained unchanged at 2.9% of GDP. The analysts expect further appreciation of koruna which should end 2007 at 32.65 SKK/EUR.
Compared to February, three experts did not take part on a March survey.
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
March 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
February 2007 | 21 | 20 : 1 | 74% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
January 2007 | 20 | 17 : 3 | 72% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
December 2006 | 15 | 12 : 3 | 66% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.3% | 2.8% |
November 2006 | 22 | 16 : 6 | 64% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.5% | 2.9% |
October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3.1% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
Period | Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit | Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation | Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate | Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 |
---|---|---|---|---|
March 2007 | 80% | 86% | 88% | 32.65 |
February 2007 | 80% | 83% | 88% | 33.74 |
January 2007 | 79% | 83% | 89% | 33.91 |
December 2006 | 79% | 72% | 88% | 33.92 |
November 2006 | 76% | 72% | n | n |
October 2006 | 71% | 63% | n | n |
September 2006 | 66% | 61% | n | n |
n – Not included in the survey
List of surveyed experts: