The survey on assessments of meeting the Maastricht criteria by Slovakia (April 4th, 2007)

Dátum: 04.04.2007

Probability of 2009 euro adoption increased from 74% to 76%

The local economists and analysts assessed the probability that Slovakia will adopt euro on January 1st 2009 to go up from 74% in February 2007 to 76% in March 2007. More optimistic view is a result of higher probability of meeting the inflation criterion thanks to the strengthening of the Slovak koruna after the revaluation of the central parity from 38.46 SKK/EUR to 35.44 SKK/EUR.

The results come from a survey among 18 local experts addressed by INEKO. Out of them, seventeen believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and one that it will not.

Compared to January, the results show no significant changes in the assessments. The average forecasts for 12-month average inflation at the end of March 2008 remained at 2.1%. Similarly, the forecasts for the public finance deficit in 2007 remained unchanged at 2.9% of GDP. The analysts expect further appreciation of koruna which should end 2007 at 32.65 SKK/EUR.

Compared to February, three experts did not take part on a March survey.

Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)

Period Number of participating experts Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 Public finance deficit for 2007* Inflation** Reference inflation***
March 2007 18 17 : 1 76% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
February 2007 21 20 : 1 74% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
January 2007 20 17 : 3 72% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
December 2006 15 12 : 3 66% 2.9% of GDP 2.3% 2.8%
November 2006 22 16 : 6 64% 3.0% of GDP 2.5% 2.9%
October 2006 20 11 : 9 56% 3.0% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%
September 2006 20 10 : 10 52% 3.1% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%

*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries

Period Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007
March 2007 80% 86% 88% 32.65
February 2007 80% 83% 88% 33.74
January 2007 79% 83% 89% 33.91
December 2006 79% 72% 88% 33.92
November 2006 76% 72% n n
October 2006 71% 63% n n
September 2006 66% 61% n n

n – Not included in the survey

List of surveyed experts:

  1. Čechovičová Silvia, ČSOB
  2. Gábriš Marek, ČSOB
  3. Hagara Eduard, ING Bank
  4. Jurzyca Eugen, INEKO
  5. Kohútiková Elena, VÚB, former vice governor of the National Bank of Slovakia
  6. Koršňák Ľubomír, UniCredit Bank
  7. Kotian Juraj, SLSP
  8. Kovalčík Ján, Trend Analyses
  9. Lenko Martin, VÚB
  10. Marcinčin Anton, The World Bank
  11. Mušák Michal, SLSP
  12. Ondriska Pavol, ING DSS
  13. Pažitný Peter, Health Policy Institute
  14. Pätoprstý Viliam, UniCredit Bank
  15. Prega Róbert, Tatra banka
  16. Senkovič Marek, Slovnaft
  17. Štekláčová Lucia, ING Bank
  18. Tvaroška Vladimír, Former Deputy Minister of Finance of the SR