The survey on assessments of meeting the Maastricht criteria by Slovakia (April 2nd 2008)
Dátum: 02.04.2008
Euro probability increased to 82% in March
The probability of Slovakia adopting euro from 2009 increased to 82% in March which is a new record since the beginning of the INEKO survey in September 2006. The hike was helped by the announcement of a preliminary public finance deficit which should be at 2.16% of GDP in 2007 according to the Ministry of Finance. Local economic analysts believe that Slovakia will meet also the inflation criterion. They assessed the average 12-month inflation in March 2008 at 2.3% which is below the expected 3.2% criterion. In March, 19 local experts took part on a regular INEKO survey. From among them, 17 believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and 2 that it will not. The average conversion rate assessed by 14 analysts was 32.44 SKK/EUR. The assessments ranged from 32.00 SKK/EUR to 33.00 SKK/EUR.
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
| Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2008 | 19 | 17 : 2 | 82% | 2.2% of GDP | 2.3% | 3.2% |
| February 2008 | 18 | 16 : 2 | 80% | 2.4% of GDP | 2.3% | 3.0% |
| January 2008 | 18 | 16 : 2 | 78% | 2.5% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| December 2007 | 23 | 19 : 4 | 78% | 2.5% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| November 2007 | 21 | 18 : 3 | 75% | 2.6% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.8% |
| October 2007 | 19 | 17 : 2 | 71% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| September 2007 | 16 | 13 : 3 | 70% | 2.9% of GDP | 1.8% | 2.6% |
| August 2007 | 15 | 14 : 1 | 77% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| July 2007 | 14 | 13 : 1 | 78% | 2.8% of GDP | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| June 2007 | 16 | 15 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| May 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 77% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| April 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.8% |
| March 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| February 2007 | 21 | 20 : 1 | 74% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| January 2007 | 20 | 17 : 3 | 72% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| December 2006 | 15 | 12 : 3 | 66% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| November 2006 | 22 | 16 : 6 | 64% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3.1% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
| Period | Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit | Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation | Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate | Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 | Forecast for conversion rate of SKK/EUR* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2008 | 93% | 82% | 94% | n | 32.44 (14) |
| February 2008 | 91% | 79% | 95% | n | 32.58 (15) |
| January 2008 | 90% | 80% | 93% | n | 32.72 (13) |
| December 2007 | 90% | 80% | 93% | n | 32.64 (18) |
| November 2007 | 85% | 81% | 93% | 32.98 | 32.63 (17) |
| October 2007 | 78% | 85% | 88% | 33.02 | 32.61 (15) |
| September 2007 | 77% | 85% | 85% | 33.13 | 32.66 (11) |
| August 2007 | 81% | 86% | 90% | 32.78 | 32.51 (13) |
| July 2007 | 81% | 85% | 89% | 32.78 | 32.58 (12) |
| June 2007 | 79% | 85% | 88% | 32.68 | 32.44 (11) |
| May 2007 | 82% | 86% | 88% | 32.68 | 32.39 (14) |
| April 2007 | 79% | 86% | 89% | 32.68 | 32.34 (14) |
| March 2007 | 80% | 86% | 88% | 32.65 | n |
| February 2007 | 80% | 83% | 88% | 33.74 | n |
| January 2007 | 79% | 83% | 89% | 33.91 | n |
| December 2006 | 79% | 72% | 88% | 33.92 | n |
| November 2006 | 76% | 72% | n | n | n |
| October 2006 | 71% | 63% | n | n | n |
| September 2006 | 66% | 61% | n | n | n |
n – Not included in the survey *The number in parentheses represents the number of analysts assessing the conversion rate.
List of surveyed experts:
- Barta Juraj, Slovenská sporiteľňa
- Čechovičová Silvia, ČSOB
- Gábriš Marek, ČSOB
- Hagara Eduard, ING Bank
- Jurzyca Eugen, INEKO
- Kohútiková Elena, VUB, former vicegovernor of the National Bank of Slovakia
- Koršňák Ľubomír, UniCredit Bank
- Lenko Martin, VÚB
- Mušák Michal, SLSP
- Ondriska Pavol, ING DSS
- Pažitný Peter, Health Policy Institute
- Pätoprstý Viliam, UniCredit Bank
- Plojhar Miroslav, JP Morgan Prague
- Prega Róbert, Tatra banka
- Sárazová Eva, Poštová banka
- Štefanides Zdeno, VÚB
- Tóth Ján, ING Bank
- Tvaroška Vladimír, Former Deputy Minister of Finance of the SR
- Zlacký Vladimír, Ernst & Young