The survey on assessments of meeting the Maastricht criteria by Slovakia (June 7th, 2007)

Dátum: 06.06.2007

Analysts predict conversion rate to be 32.39 SKK/EUR

If Slovakia adopts euro since January 2009, the conversion rate could be 32.39 SKK/EUR. This is the average rate counted from the assessments of the analysts taking part on regular INEKO survey. The assessments ranged from 31.00 SKK/EUR to 33.60 SKK/EUR.

The survey confirmed trend of growing probability that Slovakia will meet all Maastricht criteria and adopt euro on January 1st 2009. The probability increased to 77% in May compared to 76% in April. This was mainly due to higher probability of fulfilling the criteria on the public finance deficit which grew from 79% in April to 82% in May. From among 18 local experts, seventeen believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and one that it will not.

Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)

Period Number of participating experts Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 Public finance deficit for 2007* Inflation** Reference inflation***
May 2007 18 17 : 1 77% 2.9% of GDP 2.0% 2.7%
April 2007 18 17 : 1 76% 2.9% of GDP 2.0% 2.8%
March 2007 18 17 : 1 76% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
February 2007 21 20 : 1 74% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
January 2007 20 17 : 3 72% 2.9% of GDP 2.1% 2.8%
December 2006 15 12 : 3 66% 2.9% of GDP 2.3% 2.8%
November 2006 22 16 : 6 64% 3.0% of GDP 2.5% 2.9%
October 2006 20 11 : 9 56% 3.0% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%
September 2006 20 10 : 10 52% 3.1% of GDP 2.8% 2.9%

*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries

Period Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 Forecast for conversion rate of SKK/EUR
May 2007 82% 86% 88% 32.68 32.39
April 2007 79% 86% 89% 32.68 32.34
March 2007 80% 86% 88% 32.65 n
February 2007 80% 83% 88% 33.74 n
January 2007 79% 83% 89% 33.91 n
December 2006 79% 72% 88% 33.92 n
November 2006 76% 72% n n n
October 2006 71% 63% n n n
September 2006 66% 61% n n n

n – Not included in the survey

List of surveyed experts:

  1. Čechovičová Silvia, ČSOB
  2. Gábriš Marek, ČSOB
  3. Jurzyca Eugen, INEKO
  4. Koršňák Ľubomír, UniCredit Bank
  5. Kotian Juraj, SLSP
  6. Kovalčík Ján, Trend Analyses
  7. Lenko Martin, VÚB
  8. Marcinčin Anton, The World Bank
  9. Mušák Michal, SLSP
  10. Ondriska Pavol, ING DSS
  11. Pažitný Peter, Health Policy Institute
  12. Pätoprstý Viliam, UniCredit Bank
  13. Prega Róbert, Tatra banka
  14. Senkovič Marek, Slovnaft
  15. Štefanides Zdeno, VÚB
  16. Štekláčová Lucia, ING Bank
  17. Tóth Ján, ING Bank
  18. Tvaroška Vladimír, Former Deputy Minister of Finance of the SR