Dátum: 10.07.2007
The probability of Slovakia adopting euro from 2009 was 76% in June compared to 77% in May. The decrease was caused by slightly worse outlook for meeting Maastricht criteria for the public finance deficit and the inflation. In June, 16 local experts took part on a regular INEKO survey. From among them, 15 believe that Slovakia will meet the euro target and one that it will not. The average conversion rate assessed by eleven of the analysts was 32.44 SKK/EUR. The assessments ranged from 31.50 SKK/EUR to 33.15 SKK/EUR.
Summary of the survey results (average forecasts)
Period | Number of participating experts | Entering eurozone from 2009 (Yes : No) | Probability of adopting euro on January 1st 2009 | Public finance deficit for 2007* | Inflation** | Reference inflation*** |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
June 2007 | 16 | 15 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.7% |
May 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 77% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.7% |
April 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.0% | 2.8% |
March 2007 | 18 | 17 : 1 | 76% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
February 2007 | 21 | 20 : 1 | 74% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
January 2007 | 20 | 17 : 3 | 72% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.1% | 2.8% |
December 2006 | 15 | 12 : 3 | 66% | 2.9% of GDP | 2.3% | 2.8% |
November 2006 | 22 | 16 : 6 | 64% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.5% | 2.9% |
October 2006 | 20 | 11 : 9 | 56% | 3.0% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
September 2006 | 20 | 10 : 10 | 52% | 3.1% of GDP | 2.8% | 2.9% |
*Including costs of the pension reform **Average 12-month inflation at the end of March 2008 ***1.5% plus the average of 3 best EU countries
Period | Probability of fulfilling criteria on public finance deficit | Probability of fulfilling criteria on inflation | Probability of fulfilling criteria on exchange rate | Forecast for SKK/EUR at the end of 2007 | Forecast for conversion rate of SKK/EUR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
June 2007 | 79% | 85% | 88% | 32.68 | 32.44 |
May 2007 | 82% | 86% | 88% | 32.68 | 32.39 |
April 2007 | 79% | 86% | 89% | 32.68 | 32.34 |
March 2007 | 80% | 86% | 88% | 32.65 | n |
February 2007 | 80% | 83% | 88% | 33.74 | n |
January 2007 | 79% | 83% | 89% | 33.91 | n |
December 2006 | 79% | 72% | 88% | 33.92 | n |
November 2006 | 76% | 72% | n | n | n |
October 2006 | 71% | 63% | n | n | n |
September 2006 | 66% | 61% | n | n | n |
n – Not included in the survey
List of surveyed experts: